Mid-February 2026 Market Update: What It Means for Buyers, Sellers, Renters & Investors

As we move deeper into February, the Treasure Valley real estate market is beginning to show early signs of the spring shift. The data from Ada and Canyon County this week gives us a strong preview of what 2026 may hold.

Let’s break it down — and more importantly, what it means for you.

Ada Market Update

🏡 Ada County Snapshot (Feb 9–15)

• 296 new listings (↑ 5%)

• 174 homes sold (↑ 9%)

• 245 pending (↑ 18%)

• 2.1 months of inventory (↓ 2%)

• Average sold price: $609,531 (↓ 2%)

• Active listings: 1,692 (↓ 3%)

What This Tells Us:

Inventory remains tight, but buyer activity is increasing — especially with pending sales up 18%. That’s a strong signal that motivated buyers are stepping back into the market ahead of spring.

While average sold prices dipped slightly week-over-week, the pace of contracts suggests confidence is returning.

🏠 Canyon County Snapshot (Feb 9–15)

• 163 new listings (↑ 35%)

• 81 homes sold (↑ 7%)

• 116 pending (↓ 3%)

• 2.4 months of inventory (↑ 2%)

• Average sold price: $485,984 (↑ 7%)

What This Tells Us:

Canyon County is seeing a surge in new listings — likely sellers trying to get ahead of the traditional spring rush. Prices are holding steady and even rising in sold values, which shows resilience in the entry-to-mid price points.

🔮 What the Market Is Predicting for 2026

Based on the first several weeks of 2026 data, here’s what trends are shaping up:

🟢 Buyers: Opportunity Window Is Still Open

• Inventory is slowly increasing.

• Sold prices are stabilizing rather than spiking.

• Homes are selling — but not at frantic 2021 speeds.

Prediction:Spring competition will increase, but we’re not currently in bidding-war territory across the board. Buyers who act before late March may have more leverage than those who wait.

Goal for 2026:Lock in a purchase before peak competition if possible. Preparation (pre-approval, clarity on budget, quick decision-making) will be key.

🟣 Sellers: Strategic Pricing Matters More Than Ever

The data shows:

• Homes are selling.

• Buyers are active.

• But they’re price-sensitive.

We’re not in an “overprice and hope” market. Sellers who price accurately and present well are winning. Those who stretch pricing are sitting longer.

Prediction:Well-prepared homes will move quickly this spring. Overpriced homes will accumulate days on market.

Goal for 2026:Lean into strategic pricing, staging, and marketing — especially before inventory rises further in March/April.

🔵 Renters: Watch the Spring Rental Pressure

As home sales increase, rental inventory can tighten — especially in South Meridian and West Boise corridors.

If buyers hesitate due to rates, rental demand tends to rise, pushing lease rates up.

Prediction:Rental competition may increase by late spring if buyer activity continues climbing.

Goal for 2026:Secure renewals early or start searching before peak moving season hits.

🟡 Investors: Strong Signals for Steady Growth

Key takeaways:

• Pending contracts are rising.

• Months of inventory remain low (2.1–2.4).

• Sold prices are holding stable overall.

We’re not seeing volatile swings — we’re seeing measured movement.

That’s attractive for long-term investors.

Prediction:2026 looks like a stability-and-growth year rather than a boom-or-bust cycle.

Goal for 2026:Focus on:

• Cash-flow-positive rentals

• Strategic buy-and-hold

• Neighborhoods near growth corridors (South Meridian, Kuna, West Caldwell)

🌷 What Happens Next?

Historically in the Treasure Valley:

• February = quiet ramp-up

• March = noticeable activity increase

• April/May = peak momentum

The current data supports that pattern.

We’re not in an overheated market.We’re not in a declining market.We’re in a transitioning, stabilizing, opportunity-driven market.

And that’s a healthy place to be.

If 2026 is the year you want to:

• Buy your first home

• Upgrade or downsize

• Sell strategically

• Build rental wealth

Now is the time to start planning — not waiting.

The next 60–90 days will shape how competitive this year becomes.

Let’s make sure you’re positioned correctly for it.